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The difference between the model world and the real world is that players don have perfect information. You can realistically figure out fully accurate win percentages for each matchup, and there is always the possibility that somebody comes into the tournament with previously unknown tech or a new deck that totally throws your assumed numbers out of wack. The same holds true for mirror matches in Bo1 and Bo3; why canada goose play a game or when you might as well flip a coin?.
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